DTN Closing Cotton            12/11 13:29

   Cotton Backs Off

   The cotton market eased lower today, in keeping with its current 
sideways-to-downward path. 

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   The cotton market eased lower today, in keeping with its current 
sideways-to-downward path. Traders were keying off a decent export sales 
number, a weaker U.S. dollar and precious metals "gone wild."

   This morning, USDA reported export sales for the week ending Nov. 13. The 
data showed net sales of 187,648 bales for 2025/2026 and net sales of 1,760 
bales for 2026/2027. Combined seasonal sales were 189,400 bales. It was the 
second strongest report since Oct. 16. Cumulative sales for 2025/2026 have 
reached 5.44 million bales, versus the 6.05 million bales of last year, and 
still the lowest in 11 years. Sales have reached 49% of the USDA forecast 
versus a five-year average of 65% for this point in the marketing year.

   China's agriculture ministry has increased its 2025/2026 cotton consumption 
forecast to 7.6 million metric tons (mmt) from 7.4 mmt in a previous forecast. 
The ministry cited progress in China-U.S. trade negotiations and improved 
market confidence.

   The U.S. dollar fell across the board after the Federal Reserve cut rates 
Wednesday. In addition, central bankers offered an outlook for 2026 that was 
not as hawkish as some had expected. The December U.S. Dollar Index traded down 
to its lows of Oct. 28.

   The CFTC will release yet another back-logged Commitment of Traders report 
Friday. The most recent release had the managed-money funds buying back 3,453 
positions, reducing their overall net-bearish carry to 60,329 contracts.

   For Thursday, March 2026 went out at 63.97 cents, minus 15 points; July was 
66.07 cents, down 9 points; and December 2026 halted at 67.61 cents, 7 points 
lower. Thursday's estimated volume was 31,460 contracts.

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com




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