DTN Closing Cotton            12/04 13:30

   Cotton Continues Subdued Behavior 

   The cotton market spent Thursday's session sleep-walking, as again the daily 
trade saw narrow high/low ranges and slack volume

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   The cotton market spent Thursday's session sleep-walking, as again the daily 
trade saw narrow high/low ranges and slack volume. Traders were disappointed in 
the export sales, but are also awaiting Friday's jobs report, and next week's 
WASDE.

   USDA reported the lowest weekly sales number since Sept. 18 and the second 
lowest for the marketing year. The backlogged report, for the week endied Oct. 
30, showed net sales of 81,530 bales for the 2025-26 (current) marketing year 
and 7,920 for 2026-27, for a total of 89,450. Cumulative sales for 2025-26 have 
reached 4.961 million bales, below last year (5.66 million), and the 5-year 
average (7.64 million). It is the slowest pace in 11 years. The largest buyer 
was Mexico at 19,204 bales, followed by Vietnam at 17,261 and Turkey at 10,187.

   The spot December contract remains in its delivery. There were no notices 
tendered for Thursday. Thus far, the total notices tendered stand at 185 
contracts. Delivery runs through Dec. 7.  

   Friday, the Labor Department will issue its monthly job report. Expectations 
call for 125,000 non-farm jobs versus the previous number of 177,000 jobs. The 
information can possibly affect the action of the Federal Reserve. The central 
bank meets next week to decide on U.S. interest rates. Traders are anticipating 
a rate reduction. According to the CME Fedwatch Tool, the odds for a cut have 
shifted from an earlier 40% chance to the current 87% bet for a one-quarter cut.

   Also next week, USDA will issue its December WASDE. The agency increased the 
2025 crop in its last reporting.

   For Thursday, March 2026 went out at 64.08 cents, minus 38 points; July was 
66.26 cents, down 34 points; and December 2026, halted at 67.65 cents, 25 
points lower. Thursday's estimated volume was 25,359 contracts.

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com




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