DTN Closing Cotton            11/03 13:34

   Cotton Crunches Higher Monday

   With its slow-but-sure pace, cotton posted a slightly higher close Monday. 

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   With its slow-but-sure pace, cotton posted a slightly higher close Monday. 
There are a couple of upcoming market events which may be encouraging some 
short-covering as well as new buying in the market. First, this Friday, options 
on December cotton will expire. That event will soon be followed by December's 
notice period on the 21st. Of course, in the larger picture, some traders feel 
the 2025 seasonal low has been nailed down.

   USDA announced they will release a crop report on Nov. 14, even if the 
shutdown continues. With that, there are several crop estimates from private 
companies that are due this week.

   The U.S. dollar edged up to a 3-month high against the euro on Monday, 
extending its gains from last week. Some traders are casting doubts about the 
outlook for another Fed rate cut this year.

   After its 25-basis-point cut last week, Chair Jerome Powell signaled it 
could be the last cut this year, citing the risk of making additional moves 
without a more robust picture of the economy.

   Obviously, the U.S. government's shutdown is clouding the economic picture 
for traders and the central bank. This week's scheduled U.S. non-farm payrolls 
report is again in jeopardy of not being released. With such government 
releases likely to be delayed, investors are having to put more emphasis on the 
private ADP employment data and ISM PMIs for some economic direction.

   There is a school of thought, gaining traction among some cotton analysts, 
which says global ending stocks should decline in the 2025-26 marketing year. 
If that comes to fruition, then somewhat higher prices may result. In fact, 
some longer-term outlooks project prices to eventually return to historical 
averages, estimated between 86 and 94 cents per pound, assuming a moderate 
growth in consumption.

   For Monday, December 2025 ended at 65.68 cents, up 14 points, while March 
2026 halted at 66.88 cents plus 14 points. Monday's estimated volume was 73,568 
contracts.

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com




(c) Copyright 2025 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.